SC 01 Outside Spending or How to Waste a Million Dollars

The race to see who keeps the seat warm for the 2014 winner of SC 01 ends tonight without much fanfare. However one puzzling aspect of race is the $943,000 dollars spend by the DCCC and the DCCC's superPAC, House Majority PAC. Neither candidate will remain in the seat past 2014 making spending almost $1 million dollars on a House seat seem like a colossal waste of money.

If Sanford wins, his losing primary campaign starts in late of November of this year, giving him 6 months of 'governance' before he's running again.

If Busch wins, she'll begin her losing reelection race in February of 2013, giving her roughly 8 months of 'governance' in which she will run as hard right has she possibly can if she really wants to attempt to keep the seat.

No matter who wins it doesn't change the legislative math in either direction, nor does it boost either side's platform.  If Busch wins it's because Sanford is a terrible candidate with a horrible past. If Sanford wins it's because the district is strongly Republican. Either way, in 2015 neither Busch or Sanford will be the Rep from SC01 so spending this money only serves to put the DCCC down 500k two years before a serious mid-term election that will see many competitive House seats, with SC 01 not among them.

Is the Other Penn State Shoe About to Drop on PA Gov. Corbett?

     Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett isn't very popular in his home state. An Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll found that only 38 percent of Pennsylvanians approve of the job Gov. Corbett is doing in Harrisburg. However he's not alone, he's in the same boat with many of his GOP governors who won in 2010's Tea Party-fueled midterm election.

    The real story here is Gov. Corbett appears to also be very unpopular within the Republican Party these last few weeks. He's been MIA from the Romney/Ryan surrogate circle, and even more conspicuous was that he was not in attendance when Rep. Ryan made stops in Pittsburgh and SEPA this past week.  Where was the governor? He was in the Poconos, on the other side of the state, looking at the scenic Delaware River, getting heckled by anti-fracking groups, and telling local business leaders that there would be no money for tourism until the budget is fixed.  The Romney campaign seems to want Gov. Corbett as far away from them as possible.

     Could this just be an issue of wanting to keep bad polling numbers away from a Presidential nominee who has polling issues of his own, or is it about the other question the Inquirer asked in it's latest poll?  61 percent of PA voters disapprove of his handling of the Sandusky case while Corbett was the PA AG.  Social Conservative leaders in the state have already been wanting answers from Corbett as to why he handled the case like he did.

     After the Akin debacle, one can only assume that Romney doesn't want a man connected to the most vile crime scandal of the last decade to be within 100 miles of his campaign, especially a man who is the governor of a critical swing state.

   

Tom Smith Supports Your Right to Shotgun Weddings

Republican Tom Smith's campaign for PA Senate finally received the attention he always wanted. Too bad it's for something that he'll regret.

Smith likened out-of-wedlock births to rape; the audio of which can be heard here at PoliticsPA .

One would say this would totally derail Smith's chances of winning the race, but already facing a 19 point deficit  I'm sure this is just his way of making a more miraculous comeback.

The Fickle Mob

The mob is fickle, the old saying goes, it's passions and prejudices sway it's mood far more than logic.  The Republican Party is Julius Caesar and Conservatives are the Mob, only this time Caesar can not control the mob.

The Mob has screamed about jobs for two years. That's the logical answer, the one that makes the most sense. "If we had jobs things would be better.", and they are right.  In steps Gov. Mitt Romney, a man whose look oozes jobs.  Sure he isn't the perfect candidate for the Mob, but things would be better with jobs.  Lately though, their passions and prejudices have begun to sway them.  

Gays are winning rights in states across the country. They can serve openly in the service. They are beginning to be viewed as equals in the eyes of America. When the Mob turns on their televisions they come face to face with them. Though it's not just gays, it's Planned Parenthood fighting to stay in business. It's the attack on religion from all sides.  Finally, it's the forced payment of contraception by religious-based business. Jobs is no longer important. Logic becomes infected with passions. What's the use of jobs, the Mob says, if the country we live in is soulless?

In times like these the Mob looks for leadership that shares it's passions and prejudices. Leadership that is steadfast in the face of mounting social pressure to "open up" and "be understanding".  That leader is Rick Santorum. 

The phrase "Stay on Message" was coined because of this exact type of circumstance. If the base becomes convinced that social stances are just as, or more important than jobs. Then Caesar loses the Mob. 

  

Why Does No One Like Me? And Other Questions Asked by Mitt Romney.

Dear Gov. Romney,

     With your favorable ratings falling across the country, it might be time to take a moment to think what that $10+ million in negative ad buys are doing to your image.  No one loves the girl that gossips about the other girls then tries to steal their friends to make themselves more popular.  Newt supporters aren't going to flock to your campaign after you spent a month beating him down. They already had a reason to not like you, now you've given them a reason to hate you.
     I'm sure when you're done with Sen. Santorum you'll wonder why none of his supporters love you too.  In politics winning isn't everything.

Sincerely,

Passionate Policy

P.S. Don't attack Ron Paul. His people are committed. In fact I think some of them were.

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Citizen's United: The Supreme Court's Gift to Democrats(For Now)

     When the ruling came down it was shocking. Unlimited, untraceable, unregulated money could flow directly into federal political campaigns.  Billionaires with agendas could blanket the airwaves with negative, false, and vile attacks against candidates without any rebuttals. The end of Democrats every getting elected nationally was done for.  Truly the end of democracy was in 2009.  Fast forward to today and you will find a very different story.

     Candidates like Perry, Santorum, and Huntsman are still in the race despite getting destroyed in primaries.  Newt Gingrich continues his one-man wreaking crew of Mitt Romney unabated. The front-runner since time immemorial, Mitt Romney, still hasn't wrapped it up, and all because of Citizen's United.  Today brings us a barrage of stories on the matter.  Sen. John McCain from 2000 comes out of hiding and calls it "one of the worst decisions I have ever seen".  A anti-Romney film made by an ex-Romney staffer was just bought at "auction" by Newt's PAC.  Finally, Politico ran a story about the three billionaires keeping the race going well beyond it's natural death.  Candidates who should be gone because of a lack of ad buy money can now stay in the race by the grace of millionaires and their SuperPACs.

     All of this is great news for President Obama and the Democratic party in 2012.  From this point out, every SuperPAC ad will be negative, attacking the conservative credentials of it's target just in time for the Southern Primaries.  If Romney makes it through to the nomination, it will be without the full-throated support of the conservative base, meaning very few volunteers and very little non-big donor money.  If Romney is able to be knocked off, none of the conservative candidates would stand a chance winning the moderate and independent vote.  That would not only kill their chance at a GOP victory, but it would weaken all the down ticket races. Senate and house seats in toss-up districts and states would be in play.  Governors and state legislature would be subject to the public opinion of their party nationally.  Not exactly what Citizen's United had in mind in 2009.

     Yes, Citizen's United will destroy American democracy forever if not overturned, but for right now it is the greatest weapon the Democrats have.